Season Sim: February 27, 2019

Welcome to another edition of Season Sim! In this series, I turn the rest of this season over to BracketBot and we all see what happens together! I’m shaking things up, since I’m a bit short on time today, so this will appear as more of an info dump, but that’s the real interesting stuff anyway. This’ll be the last Season Sim that looks like what you’ve seen all year, since conference tournaments start as early as Monday! Sunday’s Season Sim will include simulations of next week’s conference tournaments (I think somewhere on the order of 10,000 sims for each conference), so it will be different, but should give you all a good look at what’s coming in the smaller conference tournaments next week. Anyway, it’s time to take a look into my crystal ball… the date is April 8, 2019, and we’ve all just watched…

SCENARIO: …we’ve all just watched Virginia win their first national title, defeating Kansas 66-60. It would be especially meaningful for Virginia to take home a trophy this year given what happened in the 2018 tournament, so I can imagine what this would mean for Cavs fans. UVA defeated #3 seed LSU in the semifinal, while #2 seed Kansas had beaten #1 overall seed Duke. Here’s the tournament bracket:

Some really fun upsets in this tournament bracket, especially compared to Sunday which was a pretty tame tournament sim.

Biggest upsets (by % chance of winning)
1. Georgia Southern 75, Texas Tech 69 (6.7%)
2. Northeastern 76, Florida State 68 (10.9%)
3. Vermont 72, Marquette 71 (13.2%)
4. Oregon State 75, Auburn 72 (16.0%)
5. LSU 82, Michigan State 72 (19.8%)

Other notable final scores:
Rd 1: Virginia 88, CSU-Fullerton 35
Rd 2: Villanova 74, Kentucky 61; Washington 82, North Carolina 67; Virginia Tech 78, Tennessee 61

On to the tournament reviews! (note, due to a mistake on my part, these records don’t include the conference tournament games. My bad on that, these records only go through the end of the regular season)

Tournament final: #2 Duke 74, #1 Virginia 59
Ranked teams: #1 Duke, #2 Virginia, #7 North Carolina, #15 Florida State, #23 Virginia Tech
NCAA bids: seven (those five teams, plus Louisville and Syracuse)

Tournament final: #4 Baylor 65, #3 Texas Tech 62
Ranked teams: #6 Kansas, #16 Texas Tech, #21 Iowa State
NCAA bids: eight (everyone excluding Oklahoma State/West Virginia)

Tournament final: #2 Tennessee 84, #1 LSU 72
Ranked teams: #10 Tennessee, #11 LSU, #14 Kentucky, #18 Mississippi State
NCAA bids: seven (those four teams, plus Florida, Ole Miss, Auburn)

Big Ten
Tournament final: #2 Michigan 66, #4 Wisconsin 52
Ranked teams: #3 Michigan State, #9 Michigan, #20 Purdue, #25 Maryland
NCAA bids: seven (those four teams, plus Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio State)

Big East
Tournament final: #1 Marquette 77, #2 Villanova 65
Ranked teams: #13 Marquette, #20 Villanova
NCAA bids: four (those two, plus St. John’s, Seton Hall)

Tournament final: #3 Oregon State 69, #9 Oregon 63
Ranked teams: #17 Washington
NCAA bids: three (Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State)

Tournament final: #2 Cincinnati 68, #4 UCF 54
Ranked teams: #4 Houston, #19 Cincinnati
NCAA bids: three (those two plus UCF)

Other Leagues:
Ranked teams: #5 Gonzaga, #8 Nevada, #12 Buffalo, #24 VCU
At large bids: Buffalo, VCU, St. Mary’s

Three bid thieves in total – Toledo won the MAC instead of Buffalo, Dayton won the A-10 instead of VCU, and Oregon State, as covered above, won the Pac-12 over Washington and ASU.

Last Four Byes: Oklahoma, Arizona State, Ole Miss, TCU
Last Four In: Syracuse, Ohio State, St Mary’s, Seton Hall
First Four Out: Minnesota, Clemson, NC State, Temple
Next Four Out: Butler, Indiana, Alabama, Old Dominion

Incredibly, the NIT Final Four was an all-Big-Ten affair. I guess Big Ten teams just really, really want to play at Madison Square Garden. Indiana beat Penn State 68-63; Indiana had beaten Nebraska while Penn State had beaten the tournament’s top seed, Minnesota.

That’s all for this edition of Season Sim! I’ll be back with BracketBot updates on Friday and Sunday, and my first preview of the conference tournament schedule on Sunday as well!

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